(Graphic composed by Staff Writer Connor Sullivan from images via usatoday.com, latimes.com, usatoday.com)
Staff Writer: Connor Sullivan
Email: csullivan14@umassd.edu
With the 2024 presidential election looming, several candidates are still vying for support in the upcoming primaries.
During the primaries, each state organizes either a primary election or a caucus to determine which candidates will be nominated to represent their party in the general election.
So far, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada have held democratic elections. New Hampshire and Nevada have also held their republican elections along with Iowa and the Virgin Islands.
The next election will be South Carolina’s republican primary, scheduled for February 24th.
A full schedule for the primaries can be found here.
Despite the end results seeming inevitable and obvious to many, this primary season has attracted many prominent political figures, each promising to solve the country’s pressing issues.
Some key figures who have dropped out of the race include Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy.
There are currently nine remaining candidates: three Democrats, three Republicans, and three third-party candidates.
A brief overview of their positions and success in the polls is presented here.
REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump
Former President Donald Trump announced his campaign for the 2024 election on November 15th, 2022.
Since then, his campaign has hit many hurdles, including Trump’s four criminal indictments. Despite these hurdles, he has remained the dominant republican candidate.
Many of the goals and promises he’s laid out in his speeches and video series “Agenda47” are the same as his previous campaigns.
He still claims he’ll strengthen immigration security, with promises to redirect federal agents “including parts of the DEA, ATF, FBI and DHS.”
He still promotes an “America first” approach to trade, proposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods to keep out foreign competition.
Trump promotes environmental deregulation, swearing to increase oil and gas production, claiming that “we must be the most affordable energy and electricity place anywhere on the planet.”
One key focus of his 2024 campaign has been aimed at federal institutions. While this has been a part of his platform since 2016, where his “Drain the Swamp” mantra promised to rid Washington of its corrupt officials, he now proposes much more direct and sweeping action against the federal government.
This includes the potential mass firing of government civil servants through reintroducing an executive order known as “Schedule F.”
According to the think tank Brookings, “The order would have allowed a president to turn any career official with a policy advisory role into a political appointee, removing job protection and opening the door to vastly politicize the federal workforce.”
The National Federation of Federal Employees adds, “These employees would lose their employment and union protections upon re-assignment, making them functionally at-will employees and therefore far easier to fire.”
He has also called for Republicans to defund the FBI and the DOJ on his social media site Truth Social.
Some see these proposals as Trump’s attempts to retaliate against federal institutions for the indictments, impeachment inquiries, and other charges he has faced.
Political reporter for NBC News Allan Smiths labeled these policies “a list of proposals to take down what many conservatives believe is a secret cabal of government workers who wield enormous power and work against Republicans,” adding that “Many seemed personal, tied to Trump investigations past and present.”
Trump himself characterized his campaign as one of “retribution” during his first rally in Waco, Texas.
Trump seems poised to secure the Republican nomination, holding a 10% lead over the second-place candidate. Even if he goes on to lose the general election, his policies and rhetoric will continue to influence the republican officials greatly.
Nikki Haley
Nimarata Nikki Haley previously served as governor of South Carolina and a US ambassador to the United Nations.
She announced her candidacy for president on February 14th, 2023, which made her the first to challenge Donald Trump for the Republican nomination and the first woman of color to run.
Throughout her campaign, she has presented herself as a moderate counterpart to Trump’s populist movement, although their policies broadly overlap.
Like Trump, she also calls for strengthening immigration security by shutting down the southern border and deporting thousands of migrants currently in the US.
She also intends to boost the economy through cuts on taxes, regulations, and various welfare programs.
She also wants to achieve “energy independence” by rolling back Biden’s environmental regulations and increasing oil and gas production. However, she believes in man-made climate change and would support clean energy projects “whether it’s unleashing nuclear energy, or whether it’s just investing in carbon capture and storage technologies.”
She differs from Trump’s because she shows stronger devotion to America’s federal and electoral institutions. She has condemned other Republicans for claiming that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election and has supported prosecuting those involved in the January 6th Riots.
According to recent polling data, Haley has been losing popularity throughout the primaries. Given this and that Trump has won every republican election so far, Haley seems unlikely to secure the nomination.
Ryan Binkley
Ryan Binkley announced his presidential campaign on April 24th, 2023.
He is the president and CEO of Texas-based M&A investment bank Generational Group. He is also the co-founding pastor of Create Church, which his campaign website calls “a multiethnic, multigenerational church in Richardson, Texas.”
Despite being dwarfed by Haley and Trump regarding media coverage, Binkley’s campaign has outlasted several other prominent republican candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Many of his policies are what you’d expect from a republican candidate.
Binkley is pro-life and supports the overturning of Roe v. Wade. He supports “extending Trump-era tax cuts, calling it a pro-growth position for the country.” He promises to “repair the historic damage done by the Biden Administration,” and to “return to a lawful and orderly immigration system” by increasing law enforcement presence at the border.
Binkley has stood out from the party with his focus on unity. He claims two of his campaign goals are to “Seek bipartisan solutions” and “Encourage compromise and cooperation” between all Americans, regardless of their party.
Similarly, he’s deviated from the party on the issue of climate change, as he claims he wants to promote “the production of affordable and dependable green energy.”
Despite winning only 0.7% of Iowa’s primary election votes, Binkley remained confident.
In a video on his campaign in New Hampshire, he spoke positively about his experience, saying, “I think I’m going to do way better than expected.” This was before the results of that election came in, revealing he had won less than 0.1% of the vote.
In that same video, he speaks fondly of Trump, stating, “he’s done a lot of great things, he was the right candidate for the time but I’m just seeing a new vision for ahead.”
DEMOCRATS
Joe Biden
Incumbent President Joe Biden announced his plan to run for reelection on April 25th, 2024, with the slogan, “Let’s Finish the Job.”
As one would expect from this slogan, Biden’s campaign platform greatly resembles his presidency.
He has reiterated his intentions to raise taxes on the wealthy, expand gun control, codify Roe v Wade, continue aiding Ukraine, and simplify the process for immigrants to apply for citizenship and visas.
A big focus of Biden’s campaign has been on defeating Donald Trump, with a campaign memo referring to him as an “existential threat to democracy” and the election as “The fight to reclaim the soul of the nation.”
He has called Trump his primary motivator to run for reelection, stating, “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running.”
“I will defeat him,” is a promise he’s made several times during his campaign.
However, some doubt this claim. Recent polling data shows his approval rating dropping, with a CNN poll reporting 45% approval, an NBC News poll reporting 37%, and an Ipsos poll reporting only 34%. In each poll, Trump had more participants claiming they’d vote for him.
Some have blamed this drop in approval on his handling of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. While he has recently stated that Israel’s conduct in Gaza “has been over the top” and has led to “a lot of innocent people who are starving, a lot of innocent people who are in trouble and dying,” Biden strongly supported Israel’s war effort after Hamas attacked them on October 7th.
More polling data has revealed that Biden’s support of Israel alienated many members of his progressive voter base and even members of his own White House staff.
Others have pointed to his age and a perceived drop in mental fitness, which have sowed doubts among voters.
Despite these objections, Biden is all but assured of being the Democratic candidate on the 2024 ballot, making him the one alternative voters will have to Trump.
Dean Philips
Congressional Representative of Minnesota Dean Philips considered challenging Biden in the Democratic primary on July 29th, 2023. He announced his campaign on October 27th of the same year.
Philips decided to run as he believes Biden is unlikely to defeat Trump in the next election, saying, “I’ve seen not one shred of evidence, not one shred, that Joe Biden is in position to beat Donald Trump.”
Philips’ proposed policies broadly overlap with Biden’s. Like Biden, he aims to increase environmental regulations, codify Roe v Wade, expand gun control, and create smoother paths to citizenship for immigrants.
However, he differs from Biden in a few key areas. One big difference is that he supports Medicare-for-all, which Biden has previously claimed he would veto due to its cost.
He’s also criticized Biden for a deal he brokered between Israel and Hamas. This deal mediated a four-day pause in the fighting and the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Hamas releasing fifty Israeli Hostages. Philips claimed that he wouldn’t support a ceasefire until all nine American hostages were freed.
While Phillips has claimed that Biden cannot defeat Trump, it seems highly unlikely that he’ll be able to beat Biden. The results of the democratic primaries so far show he only won 19.6% of the vote in New Hampshire compared to Biden’s 63.9% and only 1.7% of the vote in South Carolina.
Despite this, he only plans to drop out once there’s clear data showing that Biden is more likely to beat Trump than him.
Cenk Uygur
Cenk Uygur is a political commentator best known for co-creating and co-hosting the progressive news commentary show The Young Turks.
He surprised many when he announced his campaign for the Democratic nomination on October 11th, 2023.
Like the others who’ve challenged Biden for the nomination, Uygur was motivated to run out of fear that Biden would lose to Trump in a general election. He has argued that “He has at best a 10% chance of winning.”
His campaign promises include many policies that are popular among progressives. These include a nationwide minimum wage of $15, legal access to abortion, aggressive action to address climate change, and a public option to pay for healthcare services, among others.
Uygur has had to devote most of his energy to arguing that he should be able to run for president. His family immigrated from Turkey when he was eight years old, which means he legally cannot run as the Constitution requires the president to be a natural-born citizen of the United States.
He calls this barring of naturalized citizens from the presidency “The last form of acceptable bigotry in American society,” adding that he is “Going to fight it with every fiber of my being.”
Uygur has already applied for and been rejected from the ballots of several states, including Arkansas and Nevada. However, he claims to be on the ballot in several key states, including Vermont and Texas. He now sees his campaign as an opportunity to send a message to Biden about what actions progressives want to see, specifically an end to the war in Gaza.
INDEPENDENTS AND THIRD PARTIES
Robert F. Kennedy
The Nephew of former president John F. Kennedy, Robert F Kennedy Jr., launched his presidential campaign on April 5th, 2023.
Initially running as a Democrat, he announced his switch to being an independent candidate on October 9th that same year.
Kennedy has attracted support and criticism from across the political spectrum, and many of his policies lean in various directions.
Some of Kennedy’s proposed policies lean progressive, such as his support for abortion, the Green New Deal, worker unionization, affirmative action, and police and prison reform.
Others lean more conservative, including his desire to withdraw US support from Ukraine and his touting of conspiracy theories related to COVID-19 and vaccines. He has previously called the COVID lockdown and the subsequent vaccine mandates worse than Jewish persecution under Nazi Germany, which he has since apologized for.
Additionally, Kennedy has attracted support from some of the same donors as Trump and has spoken fondly of several ring-wing media figures, including Tucker Carlson.
Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has been one of the larger focal points of his campaign. He has claimed several times that he isn’t an anti-vaxxer, just concerned about the negative health impacts they may cause.
“Mr. Kennedy is in favor of safe and voluntary vaccines,” says his campaign FAQ.
However, he has made numerous assertions that betray this position and paint vaccines in an inherently negative light. This includes repeating the claim that vaccines cause autism, which still lacks any scientific evidence.
Kennedy has cited his favorability in polls as evidence that he has a real chance in the election.
A recent YouGov poll shows that 45% of Americans have a favorable opinion of him. However, they also showed that only 1% of Americans would vote for him in a general election.
Cornel West
Cornel West is an academic, public intellectual, and political activist. An outspoken socialist, West has been a prominent figure among leftists in the United States, involved in numerous organizations and protests.
He initially announced his plans to run for president on June 5th, 2023, as a candidate for the People’s Party.
Less than two weeks later, he announced he would instead run as a candidate for the Green Party. Four months later, on October 5th, he abandoned the Green Party to run as an independent. He would go on to switch parties again on January 31st of this year after creating his own “Justice for All” party.
As expected, given his past work, many of his campaign positions lean far left.
These positions include establishing a universal basic income system, increasing taxation of billionaires, abolishing ICE, demilitarizing the southern border, and nationalizing the fossil fuel industry.
He’s been criticized by Democrats who see his campaign as giving Trump an edge by potentially splitting the progressive vote.
As said by Gregory Krieg for CNN, “His candidacy evoked memories for Democrats of the 2000 and 2016 elections, when the Green nominees – Nader and Stein, respectively – were accused of drawing enough votes to help Republicans win key states in the Electoral College.”
He’s also faced criticism from other progressives and leftists due to his promise to withdraw all US involvement in Ukraine. West considers the United States as responsible for the war and calls its supplying of weapons to Ukraine a proxy war.
“NATO is an expanding instrument of U.S. global power that provoked Russia into a criminal invasion and occupation of Ukraine,” said West.
Other progressives have challenged this position, as it would mean leaving Ukraine without the resources it needs to defend itself against Russia, likely resulting in the nation becoming occupied.
West has succeeded in garnering support, especially from Black, Hispanic, and Arab American communities who feel shunned by the Democratic establishment.
However, given that his new party has only been included on the ballot in Alaska and Oregon so far, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to compete for the presidency.
Jill Stein
After running as a Green Party candidate in 2016, Jill Stein announced she would again run for the party’s nomination on November 9th, 2023.
The Green Party is the fourth largest political party in the United States (just below the Libertarian party), with several key positions being sustainability, social justice, diversity, and decentralization.
Though her campaign has been light on specific policy proposals, the principles of her campaign align with these positions. These include her support for the Green New Deal, fighting discrimination, and creating an “Economic Bill of Rights” consisting of “the right to a living-wage job, housing, food, healthcare, education and more.”
She also supports Palestine in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Her campaign features a “PLEDGE TO STOP GENOCIDE,” a petition that calls for the withdrawal of “all support from candidates supporting the genocidal war on Gaza.”
This includes candidates who don’t support “An immediate ceasefire” and “An end to Israeli occupation and apartheid.”
Like Cornel West, Stein has been criticized by democrats who see her campaign as potentially siphoning votes that would help Biden defeat Trump.
Also like Cornel West, she has been criticized by progressives for her characterization of the Russo-Ukraine war as the fault of NATO expansion and her calls to withdraw all military support from Ukraine.
Current polling data shows that only 4% of registered voters would choose Stein, meaning she is unlikely to be in serious contention for the presidency.
EXPECTED RESULTS
It seems that, in all likelihood, the presidential election will once again come down to Joe Biden or Donald Trump. The only question that remains is who is more likely to win in November.
Many cast severe doubts on Biden’s chances due to his age, alienation of progressive voters, and various moments suggesting cognitive decline. Many similarly point to Trump’s soaring levels of support as proof he would defeat Biden.
However, some argue that Biden could still win, claiming that the media have exaggerated his mental state and that his support for unionization shows he can still appeal to progressives. They also argue that Trump has shown signs of physical and cognitive decline as well.
Ultimately, we won’t know who will be our next president until the ballots start rolling in.
Until then, all we can do is advocate for what direction we think the country should head in, including advocating for the candidate we believe would be best for it (or at least not the worst). While it’s a sentiment that’s brought out every election cycle, it bears repeating that the results of this election will ring out for decades to come.